Monday, August 23, 2010

Pakistan seeks IMF loan restructuring after floods‎

  

Children look at rising floodwaters near Shahdadkot in Sindh province at sunset (23 August 2010)

  Tens of thousands of Pakistanis have fled a threatened flood surge in the south

  Officials from Pakistan have held talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to discuss its $11bn loan package in the wake of the devastating floods.

  The IMF's regional director, Masood Ahmed, told the BBC the organisation wanted to find a way to help Pakistan "through this difficult phase".

  This could include lowering some fiscal targets or allowing Pakistan to apply for emergency natural disaster funding.

  Earlier, UN officials described the humanitarian situation as critical.

  They said that although the UN had raised 70% of the $460m (£295m) needed for emergency relief, many people had yet to receive any help.

  In the UK, relief agencies have said public donors have given £29m ($45m) to the relief effort. They also said the international response had been slow to build up, but that donations had increased in the second week.

  Government officials and aid agencies in the southern province of Sindh said 80% of those affected had fled their homes.

  The Indus river outside the city of Hyderabad is at its highest for more than 50 years and is expected to rise further on Tuesday.

  Budget targets

  Mr Ahmed said Pakistan's budget and macroeconomic prospects would have to be reviewed following the floods, which UN officials estimate have left about 1,600 people dead and affected another 16.8 million.

  Analysis

  Andrew Walker Economics correspondent, BBC World Service

  The IMF-Pakistan talks are about restructuring an existing $11bn loan that was to help with economic reforms.

  The programme began in late 2008 and loan instalments are subject to a review by the IMF of Pakistan's economic policies and performance, including the government's budget deficit.

  The flood has wrecked that budget.

  A large part of the country's agricultural output has been washed away, severely hitting tax receipts.

  Spending to repair the damage will further aggravate the deterioration in the budget.

  To get the remaining instalments of the loan, Pakistan will need to get the IMF's agreement to a new, less demanding target for the deficit.

  In fact, the IMF revised the target slightly back in May to allow for urgent security spending.

  Senior IMF officials have already said they are ready to help Pakistan following the floods, so some relaxation of the target is likely in due course.

  "We need to look at these issues together in an objective way and find a solution that helps the economy during this difficult period, but also keeps them on a path that is going to produce a sustainable basis for growth," he told the BBC.

  "The Pakistani economy faces challenges even before these massive floods hit them. And those challenges are still there."

  "They need to be able to raise more revenue to finance their spending. The government has a very low tax base and we need to be able to find a way where we help them through this difficult phase," he added.

  Last week, Pakistani officials said they would ask the IMF to restructure the current $10.66bn loan package - through which it has received about $7bn since 2008 - or consider a new programme with performance criteria that were tailored to their country's new economic reality.

  A relaxation of the IMF's target for Pakistan reducing its budget deficit in order to qualify for further instalments of the loan is likely given the circumstances, says BBC economics correspondent Andrew Walker.

  Estimates for economic growth have been downgraded, with the agriculture sector particularly badly hit. The floods have destroyed or damaged more than 1.7m hectares (4.25m acres) of land, officials say.

  Earlier, President Asif Ali Zardari said it might take more than three years for Pakistan to recover from the disaster and cost up to $15bn (£10bn).

  

Pakistani men line up to receive a fresh meal at a camp for families displaced by floods run by the Pakistan Air Force in Sukkur, Sindh province

  Pakistan's humanitarian crisis is the largest in decades

  "I don't think Pakistan will ever fully recover but we will move on," he told reporters, adding that the government was working to prevent future flooding.

  Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told the BBC that more relief supplies would be flown into the country's remotest region, Gilgit Baltistan, after hearing complaints of slow aid delivery to people there.

  The north-eastern area remains cut off due to the closure of the Karakoram highway, its only road link to the outside world.

  Mr Gilani said more would be flown in now that the weather had improved, and insisted that the government's credibility in handling the disaster was good.

  Under threat

  Tens of thousands of Pakistanis have fled a threatened flood surge, with the country's south now bearing the brunt.

  An estimated four million people have now been displaced in and around the city of Sukkur, in Sindh province.

  Flood defences around the southern town of Shahdadkot are still being strengthened - although most of the population have already left.

  

  A makeshift mud barrier, built by the army and volunteers, is Shahdadkot's last line of defence from the flood waters.

  Provincial minister Mir Nadir Magsi told the BBC the situation remained critical in Shahdadkot, even though the river level had gone down.

  The river water, which is being held back by a temporary barrier of mud and sand, is at a much higher level than the land. Bulldozers are mending small breaches in the barrier.

  The threat appears to have receded from the city of Hyderabad, where the flood control barriers have held against what local officials said was a "super flood".

  Evacuation activities, meanwhile, have started in Thatta district next to the Arabian Sea.

  Dozens more villages have been inundated and although authorities expect flood waters to drain into the Arabian Sea over the next few days, evacuees who return may find their homes and livelihoods have been washed away.

  

Map of Pakistan's flooded areas, 23 August 2010

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